Modified Multi–Source Water Supply Module of the SWAT–WARM Model to Simulate Water Resource Responses under Strong Human Activities in the Tang–Bai River Basin

In the past few decades, water resources in Tang–Bai River Basin showed a declining trend, due to human–driven alteration of surface and groundwater management. There are potential risks sustainable utilization future response agricultural, industrial, domestic supply. this work, we used allocation regulation model based on SWAT (SWAT–WARM model) quantify characteristics under human activities basin. The multi–source supply module was modified improve applicability SWAT–WARM We validated our simulations against observed runoff, consumption, main results were as follows: (a) percent bias, correlation coefficient, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient measure validity found that did not show obvious advantages runoff simulations, whereas it reproduced consumption better than original model. had more reflecting process transformation basin driven by strong activities. (b) By comparing variation watershed circulation fluxes natural disturbance conditions from 1995 2016, increased evapotranspiration 6.8% 10.0%, while decreased 0.23 million m3/yr. (c) shortage at different flow frequencies, among which agricultural accounted for largest proportion, >70%. should further strengthen industrial saving, reduce fundamentally, ensure development economy society.